The Senate GOP?s internal gun politics

The geographic diversity of the state Senate Republican conference is going to show in its approach to this gun bill.

Republicans have been huddled behind closed doors for over three hours now, discussing the pending legislation. Tom King, head of the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association, walked in. As did Larry Schwartz, Cuomo?s top secretary.

Members from districts in Upstate America ? like Jim Seward or Tom Libous ? have sizable rural constituencies, while the dozen members from New York City and Long Island have more urban and suburban districts where people take a different view of gun ownership.

?They are caught between a rock and a hard place,? said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena Research Institute.

A new survey ? commissioned by Newsday ? shows that Long Islanders? look, generally, with favor on some of the measures being debated. A poll released this weekend found 74 percent of registered voters in Nassau and Suffolk counties ? including 71 percent of self-identified Republicans Republicans ? support a broader definition of an assault weapon.

All nine senators in the Republican delegation are Republicans, including Senate Republican Conference Leader Dean Skelos. Leaders of the Conservative Party have suggested they would look negatively at any GOP senator who supports an expansion of the assault weapons ban, but with such strong poll data downstate, it?s unclear how much effect their threat would have.

GOP senators started this session spooked by the prospect of primaries on their right flank, which were successful in forcing Sens. Roy McDonald and Steve Saland from office. Each man voted to legalize same-sex marriage.

On this vote, though, it?s fair to assume that the 26 mainstream Democrats and five members of the Independent Democratic Conference will vote in favor of the bill. That means only a few Republicans will have to break ranks to ensure passage, or that a number of Upstate members can vote no without endangering the legislation?s chances. Expect a regional split.

So who will the yes votes be? Watch the downstaters, especially Brooklyn Sen. Marty Golden.

?As long as they have enough penalties for the illegal guns, I can be open-minded on working with my Senate and Assembly colleagues,? he said.

Here?s the full Siena poll:

LI011313 Crosstabs by JimmyVielkind

Source: http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/175830/the-senate-gops-internal-gun-politics/

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